Ann Has Good Electoral Math...

...but not according to Bill Scher, who wrote this piece published on Real Clear Politics on Monday, June 22, 2015. Scher says:

"Is Coulter correct? Working-class whites swing? Latinos don’t swing? Nobody else swings? Let’s check the numbers."

"[Democrats won Latinos in] each of the past four presidential elections... But the spread varied widely." [Scher proceeds to show stats.]

    Scher then shows that whites voted Republican, but that their votes did not swing much.

    Is Scher trying to destroy Ann's argument against immigration by picking out a single claim (that is a very narrow claim)? Okay... Latinos are focused mainly in California, Texas, New York, and Florida. Of those, only Florida is a swing state. Notice: Americans of Cuban descent (who are Republicans) are mainly concentrated in Florida.

    Moving on.

    Scher says...

"However, neither the Latino nor the white working class demographics qualify for what we typically consider a swing vote..."

    ...but then claims the Catholic vote is the swing vote.

    That awkward moment when Hispanics are 3~ times more likely to be Catholic than the rest of Americans. Someone who supposedly knows so much about demographics missed this obvious fact?


    Scher ends with:

"Republicans will eventually [accept] immigration, because the electoral math demands it and Ann Coulter’s numbers don’t add up. The only question is, do Republicans have to lose [another election] before they accept mathematical reality?"

    Scher needs to just think:

A. Hispanics are focused in three states that are not swing states, so no Hispandering will make a difference.

B. Whites are the majority in every state except California, Hawaii, Texas, and New Mexico. (And even in those states whites vote at higher rates.)

C. Scher thinks we need to focus on Latino voters, but "focusing on voters" isn't even Ann's main point. The bottom line is that any immigration is making it harder for Republicans to win.

D. Blacks are concentrated in the south, which votes Republican.

E. Reread A and D and put them together, which equals this:

    1. Appealing to Hispanics where they are concentrated will make no difference because those states are solid Republican or solid Democrat.

    2. Appealing to Hispanics in states with little Hispanic populations won't change anything because they make up a little portion of the population.

    3. Appealing to blacks where they are concentrated will make no difference because those states are solid Republican.

    4. Appealing to blacks in states with little black populations won't change anything because they make up a little portion of the population.